Barack Obama could be excused for believing two weeks ago that he had nothing more than a flower-strewn path to the nomination. Women fainted in his presence, the media loved telling the story of the new Bobby Kennedy, and Hillary Clinton appeared to have all but conceded in her last debate. A funny thing happened on the way to Obama’s coronation, however — suddenly people started treating him as a candidate rather than a secular messiah, and Obama displayed a surprising glass jaw.
Now he faces an unexpected stumble, losing three of four primaries after a string of victories that should have convinced people the primaries were over. He has to fight a two-front war while both Hillary and John McCain work in parallel to derail him:
So what’s changed? Hillary Clinton decided to go negative over the past two weeks. Everyone expected her to do it, but no one knew it would be as effective as it has been. Many analysts wrote it off as a desperation tactic, and that had some truth to it; if she had been winning some of the states in February, she likely wouldn’t have risked it. However, Obama has some glaring deficiencies, and Hillary’s team has managed to highlight them without alienating voters, who generally like Obama.
Even then, it wouldn’t have mattered if Obama had handled the negative campaigning with any kind of aplomb. Instead, his campaign made a serious unforced error over NAFTA and essentially got caught in a series of lies over their outreach to Canadian diplomats. That undermined Obama’s political integrity, his greatest asset. He also got caught up in the expected media feast of the Tony Rezko trial, an opporunity for the press to look a little more like journalists than hagiographers.
And how did Obama react? He blew up during a Texas press conference heavily attended by Chicago journalists. He stormed off after only eight questions regarding the contacts between his campaign and Canadian diplomats over NAFTA and the Rezko trial. The national press had already been grumbling about his insularity, and Obama gave them an excuse to write reams of material about it, Rezko, and the NAFTA dance.
In short, Obama has exposed himself as a seriously inexperienced and flawed candidate. He hasn’t really been tested until now, and the glass jaw he showed in the first few days of the real bout must have the party establishment worried about a lengthy battle against either Hillary or McCain. Against both, he may soon flounder — and that slim lead in pledged delegates will not present much of an obstacle to bypassing him in Denver.